Australia has officially entered its high-risk weather season – and with it comes heat, rain and fire.
Over the next four months, the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) long-range forecast predicts a mix of “unusual” weather conditions, including tropical cyclones, bushfires, severe weather, heatwaves and flooding will hit certain regions of the country.
Although not a forecast, long-range forecasts serve as a warning of higher risks during the summer.
Here’s what you can expect this summer.
Higher risk of bushfires
The BoM says there is a greater risk of bushfires across the country this summer.
The bureau’s Dr. Karl Braganza says that although December is rainy, major fires could occur in January and February, particularly if conditions are drier. But if it rains more, the risk will decrease.
“There is an increased fire risk in the south,” Australian Emergency Management Minister Jenny McAllister said, focusing on South Australia’s southeast coast and peninsula. lower part of the Eyre.
Victoria will also face a higher bushfire threat, as will northern and central New South Wales.
The southern half of the Northern Territory will also be at greater risk.
“Unusually high” precipitation
This Christmas could be wetter than usual, with above-average rainfall forecast across most of Australia, particularly in December.
There is also an increased risk of “unusually high rainfall” in parts of eastern and north-western Australia.
“Looking at the bureau’s long-term outlook, we are looking at an increased likelihood of a wet December, particularly across much of eastern and north-west Western Australia,” Braganza said.
Hotter days and nights, heat waves
A common occurrence in Australia, this summer won’t be much different with heatwaves predicted across the country.
From December to February, we should also experience warmer than average days in large parts of the country.
We’ll likely have sweatier sleeps, with warmer-than-average nights more likely across most of Australia.
Northern, eastern and western Australia will also experience more “unusually high” nighttime temperatures.
“We see evidence that we will see a warmer than average summer with a risk of extreme heat, particularly in the north,” Braganza said. “It’s likely to be quite sticky and wet at times.”
Braganza also urged vulnerable people, the elderly and those with health conditions sensitive to extreme heat to exercise caution.
McAllister urged people, especially those in higher risk areas, to prepare.
“We all need to prepare for the risk of heat waves, the biggest killer of natural hazards,” McAllister said.
“My message to the community is that we cannot eliminate these risks. But we can prepare for them.”
Cyclones, severe storms and floods
McAllister said east coast Australians should also prepare for a summer of severe storms.
Some areas of Australia can also expect a higher than average risk of severe cyclones.
“The risk of flooding will increase in December, especially in the east,” Braganza said.
“It will also raise the possibility that the tropical cyclones we see will be more severe than those we have seen in the past.”
Typically, four cyclones make landfall during high-risk weather seasons.
Tips for next summer
Experts advise people in high-risk areas to prepare for potential weather risks.
“Understand the risk in your area,” McAllister said. “Have a plan and a kit with the things you need to take with you if you have to leave.”
If you have special needs or are caring for someone with special needs, think very carefully about what additional requirements you might need when developing your plan, McAllister said.
“Finally, please listen to the authorities and heed their advice.”
McAllister warned against complacency about the risks, urging people to prepare.
“In the Australian context, even our normal risk level can still cause fires, floods, cyclones and heatwaves.”
