Key Points
- Weather agencies predict a 60 to 71 percent chance of a La Niña occurring by the end of the year.
- The Bureau of Meteorology says that if La Niña occurs, it will be relatively weak and short-lived.
- La Niña can lead to increased precipitation, cooler temperatures and more tropical cyclones.
As international weather agencies predict the return of La Niña before the end of the year, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has spoken out.
La Niña and its counterpart El Niño result from variations in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and have a strong influence on weather patterns.
La Niña occurs when winds become stronger, changing ocean currents and carrying colder water upward.
La Niña events can lead to increased precipitation and cooler daytime temperatures. They can also mean more tropical cyclones, a higher risk of flooding and an earlier start to the monsoon.
Earlier in September, the World Meteorological Organization predicted a 60 percent chance of La Niña conditions developing toward the end of the year.
The US forecaster, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said this month there was a 71% chance of La Niña appearing between September and November, adding that it was expected to persist through January and March of next year.
Several other American forecasters also believe that a La Niña phenomenon is likely.
What did the Bureau of Meteorology say?
On Tuesday, the BoM shared an update stating that while “some atmospheric indicators such as pressure, clouds and trade wind patterns over the Pacific have been more La Niña-like in recent weeks ”, it remained to be seen whether or not. these conditions would continue.
“It is possible that a La Niña phenomenon develops in the coming months, but if so, it should be relatively weak (in terms of the intensity of the sea surface temperature anomaly) and short-term,” added the press release.
Earlier this month, Steven Bernasconi, the BoM’s head of risk preparedness and response, told reporters the bureau was at the La Niña “watch” level, with three of seven indicators pointing toward the current climatic event.
A “watch” status indicates a 50 percent chance of La Niña developing.
The BoM assessment is based on climate model predictions and atmospheric and ocean conditions in the Pacific.
Another La Niña in 2024 would mark the fourth such event in five years. On average, La Niña events have occurred every three to seven years in the past.
With additional reporting from the Australian Associated Press
