In 2019, around 16% of electricity consumed was produced by wind and solar photovoltaic energy. By 2030, the Energy Security Board estimates that renewable energy will account for 40% of electricity consumption, driven by falling technology costs, government programs and consumer preferences.
“This scale and pace of change [place] Australia in an international cohort that includes Ireland, California, Germany, Spain and Portugal,” the ESB wrote in its annual report. Health of the national electricity market report.
The adoption of renewable energy is also expected to lead to lower electricity prices, with electricity and gas prices falling slightly relative to income levels and the CPI, with average energy consumption falling alongside the adoption of solar panels on roofs.
The decline has been most notable in Queensland and South Australia, where there is high penetration of rooftop solar. The report also reveals that rooftop solar represents almost 5% of the national energy market and this figure is expected to reach 10% in 2030.
But climate change poses a threat to the security and reliability of Australia’s aging energy network, which suffered from increased severity of weather events over the summer, particularly in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia.
“The recent horrific bushfires highlight the importance of power system resilience as extreme weather events become more frequent and intense,” the ESB wrote.
“This requires special attention in the coming years, as further extreme events can be expected, including fires, floods and high temperatures. Average temperatures in Australia have risen steadily over the past century…The particular specifications and cost of equipment capable of withstanding these conditions need to be re-examined.
The COAG Energy Council has asked the ESB to recommend interim measures to improve system security and reliability by March 2020.
