China’s recent ban on the export of key minerals – including gallium, germanium, antimony and ultra-hard materials – has sparked discussions about potential opportunities for Australia. However, the scale and timing of these benefits remains uncertain, according to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver.
The ban, announced by China’s Commerce Ministry last week, also includes stricter controls on the export of dual-use graphite materials.
The moves came just a day after the outgoing Biden administration introduced new export controls and sanctions aimed at curbing the sale of advanced U.S. microchips and semiconductor manufacturing technologies to China.
China’s “rapid response” is seen as a retaliatory measure against the United States, marking a significant shift toward a more assertive stance compared to previous years.
According to Oliver, this indicates that global trade conflicts are “increasing.”
He noted that China’s current approach is more aggressive than in 2018.
“This is a warning: trade conflicts are intensifying and [there] There would be more problems over the next year.
China dominates global production of gallium and germanium, supplying 94% and 83% of these essential minerals, respectively, according to a European Union study on critical raw materials, reported by Bloomberg News.
Gallium is essential for semiconductors, electric vehicles and wind turbines, solar photovoltaic systems and batteries, while germanium has key applications in fiber optic systems, infrared optics, solar cell applications and light-emitting diodes.
According to the CSIRO, gallium and germanium are among Australia’s little-known critical minerals and, like many critical minerals, they are generally not mined directly but are by-products of the processing of other minerals.
Although Australian production is currently limited, both minerals have significant potential for Australia, the CSIRO noted.
Oliver acknowledged that current tensions between China and the United States pose a long-term opportunity for Australia, but warned that this would take time, given the extended timelines for such projects.
“The short answer is yes, there is an opportunity for Australia to supply these minerals, but it may take time to ramp up production,” Oliver said.
“It’s one of those things: We’re not as big as the big producers like China, but it seems like there’s potential for acceleration.”
The lack of data on the precise size of these resources in the country means that it is difficult to determine the scale of these opportunities.
“It’s something that takes time and Australia can’t get started immediately,” he said, noting the potential was “relatively limited in the short term”.
Dr Chris Vernon, head of the CSIRO’s Critical Minerals R&D Hub, said earlier this year that gallium and germanium were attracting attention because of their strategic importance and China’s dominance in their production.
“However, there are many other critical mineral markets in which Australia could play a role,” Vernon said in June.
“Australia’s potential in the critical minerals market is immense. Especially now, with lesser-known minerals like gallium and germanium playing a central role in modern technology and renewable energy.
Shares of Australian company Lynas Rare Earths, the largest producer of rare earth minerals outside China, surged last week to a near three-week high, following China’s announcement of export ban.
